Expressive Voting and Electoral Context : A Quantitative Analysis of the Effect of Expressive Voting Motivations Across US Swing and Safe States

Sammanfattning

Voter turnout is generally agreed upon as a fundamental component of representative democracy. In the United States, voter turnout is comparatively lower than in other democracies, which is cause for concern. Previous research has identified expressive voting motivations, such as the civic duty to vote and the expression of partisan preference, as essential explanations for why individuals vote. In the United States, less is known about how these motivations operate across different electoral contexts, particularly between safe and swing states. This thesis analyzes whether expressive voting motivations are associated with higher voter turnout in US presidential elections post 2010, and whether electoral context, in terms of state type, moderates this relationship. Building on the expressive component of the calculus of voting, the study analyzes individual-level survey data from the American National Election Studies (ANES) for the 2012–2024 US presidential elections. Linear regression models with interaction effects are used to estimate the relationships. The findings reveal that both civic duty and party identification are positively associated with voter turnout. Civic duty emerges as the strongest predictor. Furthermore, the results indicate that electoral context moderates the relationship between party identification and turnout, with the effect being weaker in safe states, while no effect is found for civic duty. These findings contribute to research on expressive voting motivations, suggesting that certain expressive voting motivations are conditioned by electoral context. This highlights the importance of considering contextual electoral factors when trying to understand individual motivations to vote.