Mot en kärnmodell för valdeltagande: Institutionella och strukturella faktorer på makronivå : En tvärsnittsanalys av tvångsröstning, befolkningsstorlek och demokratisk kontext

Sammanfattning

This thesis explains cross-national differences in voter turnout by testing a parsimonious macro-level “core model” derived from the turnout literature. Using cross-sectional data for 155 countries, turnout is measured as VAP turnout (the share of the voting-age population that voted) in the most recent parliamentary election. The model includes compulsory voting (dummy), population size (log), and the democratic context measured by the V-Dem Electoral Democracy Index. OLS regression indicates a clear positive association between electoral democracy and turnout, while compulsory voting is negative and close to conventional significance levels and population size is negative but not statistically significant when controlling for the other variables. Overall, the model explains a modest but meaningful share of turnout variation (R² ≈ 0,12), highlighting the value of a feasible macro-level core model and transparent operationalization choices.