Flexibilitet i det svenska elsystemet : En historisk och framtida prognostisk analys fram till 2030 av det ekonomiska värdet av stödtjänsterna FCR, mFRR och aFRR samt den avhjälpande åtgärden FFR

Sammanfattning

The Swedish power system is undergoing major transformations due to increased electrification and a growing share of variable renewable electricity production. To meet the challenges of a more dynamic energy system, flexibility, defined as the ability to rapidly adjust electricity production or consumption, is becoming increasingly crucial to maintaining system balance and reliability. This thesis aims to analyze the economic value of key balancing services in Sweden:FFR, FCR, aFRR, and mFRR. By combining historical data analysis with quantitative forecasting methods, including SARIMAX and multiple linear regression, the study investigates price developments for these services and projects their future market value upto 2030. The forecasts are based on four future scenarios outlined in Svenska kraftnät’s long-term market analysis. The results show that the economic value of balancing services has varied significantly over time, influenced by electricity price volatility, system stress, and regional grid conditions. Price spikes have been particularly prominent for mFRR and aFRR during high-stress periods. Forecasts indicate a rising or stable market value for flexibility services mFRR and aFRR, whereas FFR and FCR are predicted to maintain today’s values or decrease. Moreover, pronounced differences across Swedish bidding zones suggest that local grid conditions have a greater impact on value than previously assumed. The study concludes that flexibility services will play a critical role in a resilient and sustainable power system. Their future economic value is closely linked to system design, technological advancement, and regional conditions. To unlock the full potential of flexibility, continued development of market structures, regulatory frameworks, and incentivesis necessary to support investments in both technical and demand-side resources.