Från Riksbanken till bostadsmarknaden: Navigering av penningpolitikens väg till variationer i bostadspriser

Sammanfattning

The purpose of this paper is to examine the effects of the Swedish central bank's monetary policy on regional house prices. This study aims to capture variations between how different regions are affected, and capture monetary policy effects over time. The method used in this thesis to estimate the effect is modeled in two steps. Step one consists of estimating monetary policy shocks from policy rates and quantitative easings with time series data, using a regression model inspired by Romer & Romer’s (2004) method to estimate monetary shocks from monetary policy. Step two of the regression model consists of a fixed effects panel data model. In the second step, the effect of monetary policy shocks on housing prices is estimated. In order to estimate the effect, monetary shocks derived from the first step are incorporated as explanatory variables in the fixed effects model. Control variables are also included in the second regression in order to avoid spurious correlation and isolate the effect of the monetary shocks. Expectations are formed from price theory, the transmission mechanisms of monetary policy, and earlier studies of monetary policies effect on housing prices. The results show strong evidence that regional housing prices are affected by monetary shocks from quantitative easings and policy rates, and weak evidence of how different regions are affected. Further, the results contribute to a discussion of monetary policy and its effect on housing prices, and provide valuable insights of the dynamics of the Swedish housing market.