From Drought to Violence : A Global Quantitative Analysis of Climate Shocks and Organized Violence

Sammanfattning

This study examines the relationship between drought and organized violence, focusing on state-based conflict, non-state conflict, and one-sided violence. The study is motivated by growing concerns about climate change and an ongoing debate within the climate-conflict literature regarding whether climate-related shocks can contribute to armed conflict. Drawing on the opportunity-cost mechanism, drought is expected to reduce livelihood opportunities and thereby decrease the cost of participating in organized violence. Based on this logic, the study hypothesizes that drought increases the risk of state-based and non-state conflict, but not one-sided violence. To answer the research question, a quantitative research design is employed using global grid-cell data from PRIO-GRID and UCDP. Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression analysis is used to examine the association between drought and organized violence while controlling for demographic, institutional, and socioeconomic factors. The findings reveal a positive and statistically significant association between drought and state-based conflict, providing support for the first hypothesis. A positive relationship is also identified between drought and non-state conflict. However, the association loses statistical significance when all control variables are included, providing only partial support for the second hypothesis. No robust relationship is found between drought and one-sided violence, supporting the third hypothesis. Overall, the results suggest that climate-related shocks may increase the risk of conflict under certain conditions and that institutional and structural factors play an important role in shaping this relationship. The study contributes to the climate-conflict literature by examining global patterns across different forms of organized violence and highlights the importance of climate adaptation in vulnerable regions. The study additionally highlights the relevance of considering climate change as both an environmental and a broader security challenge.