Drought and Conflict Dynamics in Africa: A Disaggregated Analysis of Short- and Long Term Effects

Sammanfattning

This thesis examines the relationship between drought and conflict in Africa usingsubnational panel data for 51 countries from 1996 to 2024. It combines drought datafrom the Standardised Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) with conflictevent data from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (ACLED) andestimate a disaggregated model on different types of conflict at the ADM1 provincelevel.The results indicate that drought does not have an immediate effect on overall conflict incidence, but that prolonged exposure, particularly over two to four years,increases conflict risk. The effects vary by conflict type. Lower-intensity forms ofsocial unrest, particularly protests and to a lesser extent riots, respond quickly todrought conditions, while organised armed violence, such as battles, shows no immediate effect and may even decline in the short run, suggesting temporary constraintson mobilisation, logistics, and resources.The heterogeneity analysis indicates that the effects are concentrated in regionsdependent on rainfed agriculture, whereas local economic development, proxied bynight-time light intensity, plays a weaker role. These findings are consistent with athreat multiplier interpretation, whereby drought amplifies existing socio-economicvulnerabilities rather than acting as a direct trigger of violence.Overall, the results suggest that drought primarily shapes the timing and form ofconflict rather than uniformly increasing conflict incidence, highlighting the importance of distinguishing between different types of violence in the climate–conflictanalysis