How much H2 in 2030 – where, to whom and with what probability? Quantifying hydrogen production in Sweden under different scenarios

Sammanfattning

Hydrogen is widely regarded as a key enabler of decarbonization in hard-to-abatesectors, yet its market development remains highly uncertain. This thesis investigatesthe potential scale and conditions for green hydrogen production in Swedentoward 2030 by combining project mapping, stakeholder interviews, and scenariobasedmodeling. The study aims to quantify future hydrogen production, identifykey demand sectors, and analyze the main drivers and barriers influencing marketdevelopment.The results indicate that potential production outcomes vary significantly dependingon realization conditions. While an upper-bound estimate suggests a possible productioncapacity of approximately 660,000 tonnes of hydrogen per year, the mostprobable outcome is substantially lower under current conditions. The analysisidentifies a limited number of large-scale industrial projects as system anchors thatlargely determine overall production volumes.A total of 43 hydrogen production projects were assessed using a probabilistic frameworkbased on four core factors: project status, electricity bidding zone, publicfunding, and sector readiness. These were evaluated under three socio-economicscenarios (SSP1, SSP2, SSP3), complemented by Monte Carlo simulations to captureuncertainty in project realization.Key barriers include high production costs, uncertain demand, infrastructure limitations,and persistent coordination challenges between producers and consumers.The study concludes that hydrogen market development in Sweden is highly interdependent,relying on progress across both the hydrogen value chain and the regulatorylandscape, and remains embedded within a broader global system. Achievinglarge-scale deployment therefore requires coordinated action, including strengthenedand coherent policy frameworks, demand-side support mechanisms, and improvedalignment between supply and demand.