Keep Quiet and Nobody Gets Hurt

Sammanfattning

In this essay we examine intelligence cooperation between Finland and Sweden during the time period 1943-1948 to test a proposed theory of intelligence sharing by Brown & Farrington. This theory posits that intelligence sharing will occur if three prerequisites are present, labelled Reason, Route and Record. We use archival material in addition to previous historical research to investigate intelligence sharing in our case empirically. A congruential analysis is then applied to test the theory against the empirical findings. Our findings are that intelligence sharing took place during the years 1943-1945, but not during the years 1946-1948. We find that Brown & Farrington’s theory is largely able to explain this change, but we also identify several aspects of the theory requiring further development. There can be specific reasons not to share intelligence, not merely an absence of reasons to share intelligence. Furthermore, the components of Reason are difficult to compare when they give conflicting indications and could be more precisely defined. Finally, there is a need for a more precise definition of intelligence sharing, as presently there is no differentiation between authorized and unauthorized intelligence sharing.