Managerial Decision-Making in Conditions of Uncertainty : Integrating Gut Feeling and Analytical Reasoning

Sammanfattning

Managers are increasingly required to make decisions in environments characterised by ambiguity, incomplete information, and unpredictable outcomes. In such conditions, purely analytical decision-making may be insufficient, while intuition is often both necessary and contested. This study explores how managers integrate intuitive and analytical reasoning when making decisions under conditions of uncertainty. Drawing on dual-process theory, the study examines the interaction between intuitive and analytical reasoning in real-world managerial decision-making. A qualitative research design was applied, combining thinking-aloud protocols with semi-structured interviews involving ten managers from different industries. This methodological combination enabled insight into both participants’ real-time reasoning and their reflective interpretations of decision-making under uncertainty. The empirical material was analysed through thematic analysis, following an abductive approach. The findings indicate that uncertainty does not lead managers to adopt one fixed decision-making style. Rather, managers dynamically move between intuition and analytical reasoning depending on the situation. Analytical reasoning is used to create structure, reduce perceived risk, and legitimise decisions, while intuition becomes especially prominent when data is limited, ambiguous, or unable to provide a clear direction. The findings also suggest that intuition is not perceived as irrational, but as an experience-based form of judgement shaped by pattern recognition and prior managerial exposure. This study contributes to the literature by challenging a strict separation between intuition and analytical reasoning. It shows that managerial decision-making under uncertainty is best understood as an iterative and context-dependent process in which both modes of reasoning are integrated. Future research could build on these findings by examining how managerial experience shapes reasoning under uncertainty, including whether experience strengthens intuitive judgement or, in some contexts, creates biases that influence how managers interpret information and assess risk.