MARKNADSRÄNTOR ELLER OPERATIV PRESTATION? En empirisk studie av faktorer bakom goodwillnedskrivningar under räntecykeln 2021–2023

Sammanfattning

Goodwill is one of the most subjectively valued areas within business administration. Its balance sheetitem is tested in accordance with IAS 36, a standard that emphasizes management’s subjectiveassessments of future cash flows and external market conditions. During the period 2021-2023, adramatic macroeconomic interest rate reversal occurred, which mathematically should have increasedcorporate discount rates (WACC) and consequently driven goodwill impairments. This creates a tensionregarding how management’s discretionary leeway is utilized under financial pressure. The purpose of this study is to examine Swedish listed companies’ judgments in the application ofimpairment testing of IAS 36 during the interest rate cycle of 2021-2023. More specifically, it analyzeshow reported discount rates developed in relation to 10-year Swedish government bond rate, and theextent to which changes in WACC, operational performance and historical impairment decisionscoincide with actual goodwill impairments. The study adopts a quantitative method with a final sample of 99 companies listed on Nasdaq StockholmLarge Cap. The empirical data was gathered from annual reports and financial databases and analyzedusing parametric and non-parametric difference tests as well as exploratory logistic regression models. The results demonstrate that changes in companies’ discount rates (WACC) do not exhibit a statisticallysignificant relationship with actual goodwill impairments during the studied period. This indicates adecoupling between external market interest rates and internal valuation models. Instead, operationalperformance (ROA) and the presence of historical impairment decisions emerge as the primary andsignificant explanatory factors for the probability of impairment. These patterns are discussed in light of theories on discretion, earnings management, and legitimacy. The absent interest rate effect appears consistent with Hartmann’s (2022) sociological framework onmethodological mystification, where complex financial models can function as a protective layer againstexternal scrutiny. Furthermore, the significance of operational performance can be interpreted in the lightof stewardship theory, suggesting that management prioritized corporate operational substance overtemporary calculative fluctuations. In conclusion, the study provides practical recommendations forauditors, investors and standard setters (IASB) regarding the need for stricter transparency requirementsin financial disclosures. Keywords: Goodwill impairment, IAS 36, WACC, Interest rate shock, Operational performance,Methodological mystification, Stewardship theory.