Måste ett krig bryta ut för att finansmarknaden skall påverkas signifikant?

Sammanfattning

Political shocks are unexpected events that could cause great consequences depending on the seriousness of the shock. These shocks do not only harm the stock market but also the foreign exchange market. Thus, I aimed to investigate how and whether political shocks show significant effects in the weekly profit of categorized currency pairs, such as English-speaking countries’ currencies, Asian countries’ currencies and EU-countries’ currencies. The result showed that depending on the seriousness of the political shock, the weekly profit of respective currency pairs was affected significantly. The result also paved the way for an analysis and speculation of how the weekly profit of currency pairs might react on future political shocks. However, the foreign exchange market does not only react on political shock but also on the trade relations between countries. Various economic theories partially explain why bilateral trades between countries tend to increase under specific circumstances. Therefore, I opted for three fundamental economic theories that my analysis is based on.