Mellanstatlig hedging i en multipolär värld : En analys av Saudiarabiens säkerhetsstrategi gentemot Pakistan

Sammanfattning

This study examines Saudi Arabia’s strategic security choices amidst shifting geopolitical dynamics and the perceived erosion of US security guarantees in the Persian Gulf. The aim is to explain why the Kingdom has chosen to diversify its security architecture through deepened cooperation with another middle power, Pakistan, rather than replacing the United States with a new superpower such as China. Employing Explaining-Outcome Process-Tracing and a theoretical framework rooted in hedging, the study analyzes the strategic logic behind the recent security agreement between the two nations. The analysis reveals that the selection of Pakistan is driven by a critical tradeoff between security benefits and political autonomy. Unlike a formal alliance with a superpower, which would entail high autonomy costs and the risk of political subordination, the relationship with Pakistan offers access to specific military capabilities—including an implicit nuclear deterrence—within a transactional and flexible framework. The findings indicate that Saudi Arabia has established a "limited security alignment" that functions as a strategic fallback option in the face of existential threats. The study concludes that the phenomenon of hedging is not limited to vertical relations between secondary states and super powers but can also be applied horizontally between middle powers to maximize regional autonomy and mitigate reliance on external hegemons.