Municipal Climate Adaptation in Sweden: An analysis of Fiscal Capacity and Climate Exposure

Sammanfattning

Climate adaptation has become an increasingly important responsibility for Swedish municipalities, yet adaptation progress varies considerably between local governments. This study explores how fiscal capacity and climate exposure relate to variation in climate adaptation progress among four smaller Swedish municipalities: Boden, Arvika, Bollnäs, and Köping. Drawing on literature relating to adaptive capacity, fiscal capacity, and issue salience, the study investigates two theoretically derived expectations: that municipalities with higher fiscal capacity and municipalities with higher climate exposure will display higher levels of climate adaptation progress. Using a comparative case study design, this thesis analyses fiscal capacity measured through tax base per capita and municipal debt per capita, and climate exposure measured through nature-related insurance damages and projected climate risk assessments, to more deeply explore how these factors can be understood in relation to climate adaptation at the municipal level. The findings suggest that measurements of fiscal capacity alone cannot account for the observed variation between the cases. Similarly, variation in nature-related insurance damages was not reflected in the observed differences in climate adaptation progress. In contrast, projected climate risk assessments appeared to align more closely with differences in climate adaptation progress across the cases, as the municipalities that performed highest in climate adaptation progress also displayed higher assessed climate-related risks. The study concludes that projected climate exposure appears more closely connected to differences in municipal climate adaptation progress than fiscal capacity. The findings lend tentative support to arguments derived from issue salience theory, suggesting that perceptions of future climate risks may contribute to the prioritisation of climate adaptation