Närhetens pris: En kombinerad kvantitativ och kvalitativ studie av geografisk närhet, Natomedlemskap och hotuppfattning i europeiska staters militära utgifter 2008–2024

Sammanfattning

This thesis examines how variation in European states’ military expenditure after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 can be understood through geographic proximity to Russia, NATO membership and threat perception. The study combines a quantitative analysis of 39 European states during the period 2008–2024 with qualitative case studies of Poland, Portugal and Hungary. The theoretical framework is based on Kenneth Waltz’s neorealism and Stephen M. Walt’s balance-of-threat theory. The results show that the period after 2022 is positively associated with higher military expenditure, and that geographic proximity to Russia is clearly related to higher defence spending. NATO membership, however, does not show an equally strong independent relationship in the regression analyses. The case studies are used to deepen the understanding of how threat perception and political justifications vary between states. The thesis therefore argues that European states’ military expenditure after 2022 is best understood through a combination of geographic exposure, alliance context and national threat perception.