Navigating Uncertainies: Strategies for Rubust Hydrogen QRA

Sammanfattning

Both the EU and Sweden aim to incorporate hydrogen to decarbonize industries and reduce fossil fuel dependence. Liquid Wind, a company focused on sustainable electro-fuel production, develops facilities to convert biogenic CO2 and renewable hydrogen into green electro-fuel eMethanol. Such facilities, handling flammable substances, require quantitative risk assessments (QRA). Currently, Hydrogen QRA uses conservative estimates and worst-case scenarios. There is potential for improving uncertainty management and decision-making in QRA. This thesis explores strategies to enhance QRA accuracy by evaluating the strength of knowledge and managing uncertainties. An iterative study, incorporating more data and Monte Carlo simulations, aims to identify the necessary detail level for QRA studies. Results indicate increased strength of knowledge, though some parameters may not need detailed distributions. Applying this approach broadly could improve QRA robustness and accuracy, especially when scaling facilities from pilot to commercial plants.