OPTIMIZING WIND ENERGY INVESTMENTS IN SUBOPTIMAL WIND REGIMES : A Techno-Economic framework for determining minimum viable wind speeds at higher hub heights; 150 m, 200 m in Sweden (SE3)

Sammanfattning

This thesis develops a spatially explicit techno-economic framework to evaluate the viability of onshore wind deployment at 150 m and 200 m hub height (hh) in Sweden’s SE3 electricity bidding zone. By comparing emerging 200 m turbine configurations with the current 150 m industry standard, the study addresses key limitations of previous research, including coarse spatial resolution, static LCOE-based evaluation, and outdated turbine performance assumptions. An integrated methodology is introduced that combines high-resolution atmospheric modeling, turbine-specific energy yield simulation, and dynamic financial analysis.Following a comparative assessment of ERA5, NEWA, CERRA, and NORA3 reanalysis datasets, NORA3 was identified as the most suitable wind resource dataset for SE3. Hourly wind data at 150 m with 3 km spatial resolution were applied to V150-4.2 MW and V162-5.6 MW turbines, while physics-based logarithmic extrapolation to 200 minformed modeling of the V172-7.2 MW turbine across 31,807 grid points using a normalized wind farm framework. In total, over 95,000 techno-economic scenarios were evaluated using a discounted cash-flow model calibrated to contemporary Swedish market conditions, estimating Net Present Value (NPV), Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE), and Minimum Profitable Wind Speed (MPWS).Results demonstrate that V172-7.2 MW turbine at 200 m hh achieves a mean NPV of €3.6 M, IRR of 12.2%, and MPWS of 6.20 m/s, compared with 6.10 m/s for V150 at 150 m. Despite this marginally higher MPWS, V172 expands economically viable inland development to 85.3% of SE3 adding approximately 1,000 km² of new viable land and delivers substantially higher long-term profitability. This confirms that MPWS defines where wind becomes viable, while NPV defines how valuable that viability becomes.Sensitivity analysis indicates that CAPEX and discount rate exert strongest influence on project viability, while Monte Carlo simulations confirm the superior robustness of V172 configuration, which exhibits the lowest relative AEP uncertainty (11.9%). Overall, these findings demonstrate the transformative potential of high-hub height, low-specific-power turbine technology for unlocking inland wind resources in SE3. This thesis develops a spatially explicit techno-economic framework to evaluate the viability of onshore wind deployment at 150 m and 200 m hub height (hh) in Sweden’s SE3 electricity bidding zone. By comparing emerging 200 m turbine configurations with the current 150 m industry standard, the study addresses key limitations of previous research, including coarse spatial resolution, static LCOE-based evaluation, and outdated turbine performance assumptions. An integrated methodology is introduced that combines high-resolution atmospheric modeling, turbine-specific energy yield simulation, and dynamic financial analysis.Following a comparative assessment of ERA5, NEWA, CERRA, and NORA3 reanalysis datasets, NORA3 was identified as the most suitable wind resource dataset for SE3. Hourly wind data at 150 m with 3 km spatial resolution were applied to V150-4.2 MW and V162-5.6 MW turbines, while physics-based logarithmic extrapolation to 200 minformed modeling of the V172-7.2 MW turbine across 31,807 grid points using a normalized wind farm framework. In total, over 95,000 techno-economic scenarios were evaluated using a discounted cash-flow model calibrated to contemporary Swedish market conditions, estimating Net Present Value (NPV), Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE), and Minimum Profitable Wind Speed (MPWS).Results demonstrate that V172-7.2 MW turbine at 200 m hh achieves a mean NPV of €3.6 M, IRR of 12.2%, and MPWS of 6.20 m/s, compared with 6.10 m/s for V150 at 150 m. Despite this marginally higher MPWS, V172 expands economically viable inland development to 85.3% of SE3 and delivers substantially higher long-term profitability. This confirms that MPWS defines where wind becomes viable, while NPV defines how valuable that viability becomes.Sensitivity analysis indicates that CAPEX and discount rate exert strongest influence on project viability, while Monte Carlo simulations confirm the superior robustness of V172 configuration, which exhibits the lowest relative AEP uncertainty (11.9%). Overall, these findings demonstrate the transformative potential of high-hub height, low-specific-power turbine technology for unlocking inland wind resources in SE3. The integrated framework provides a robust, decision-ready methodology for investors, developers, and policymakers, supporting strategic wind deployment and accelerating Sweden’s transition toward a resilient, cost-effective, and fully renewable electricity system.