Technical-Economic Assessmentof Waste-to-Energy Incinerationin Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam

Sammanfattning

Rapid urbanisation in Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC) has driven municipal solid waste(MSW) generation to 13,000-14,000 tonnes per day, the majority of which islandfilled at sites that are over capacity and environmentally problematic. Againstnational targets that require modern treatments (including waste-to-energy (WtE)incineration) of most urban waste by 2025, this thesis presents a technical-economicassessment of moving-grate WtE incineration for only power generation in HCMCacross seven population scale scenarios ranging from 100,000 to 14 millioninhabitants. MSW generation and composition are estimated from a constant percapita rate and local waste composition data. Electricity generation is derived frommoisture-adjusted lower heating value (LHV) calculations. Capital expenditure(CAPEX) is modelled through a power-law regression of seven Vietnamese WtEprojects, and financial performance is evaluated using CAPEX, levelized cost ofenergy (LCOE), net present value (NPV) and payback period, together with asensitivity analysis on the tipping fee, discount rate and electricity tariff. The blendedLHV of the HCMC waste stream is estimated at about 8.2 MJ/kg, which is above theself-sustaining combustion threshold, so it confirms basic technical feasibility. Theresults show a strong economy-of-scale effect that unit CAPEX falls from about 4.3 to 1.9 million USD/MW and LCOE from about 110 to 46 USD/MWh as powercapacity rises. Facilities above approximately 20 MW are found to be financiallyviable, while smaller plants rely more on tipping-fee revenue and concessionalfinancing. The study concludes that mid-scale moving-grate WtE is both technicallyand economically feasible for HCMC although their performance remains sensitiveto feedstock-moisture and financing risks.