Penningpolitikens påverkan på inflationen åren 2020-2023

Sammanfattning

This thesis paper is regarding the monetary effects on inflation during the period 2020-2023 with focus on inflation developing during the years 2022-2023, as well as discussing what type of variables that could have played a role on the inflation levels. In this thesis paper the variables asset purchases, policy rate, unemployment, GDP-indicator and oil price are used to perform a time regression analysis, with the variable inflation based on CPI as its independent variable. Based on the output of the regression model, further discussion is emphasized as well as providing answers to the research question. The conclusion from this essay is that monetary policy, in the form of policy rate, was successful in explaining the inflation levels during the period 2022-2023. This was proven as the OLS output showed a statistically significant relationship between policy rate and inflation at the 5-percentage level of significance. From this, the conclusion can be drawn that an increase of one percentage point in policy rate leads to a decrease in inflation with −1.11630 percentage points. From this thesis paper, it was shown that asset purchases did not achieve a statistically significant relationship with inflation. However, due to previous studies and economic theory this paper makes the argument that asset purchases from the Swedish Central Bank is still a relevant tool for monetary policy. The argument that the Swedish Central Bank also could have conducted a faster and more contractionary monetary policy is presented in the final parts of this paper.