Resisting at Risk : The Potential of Nonviolence for the Self-Protection of Civilians in Civil War Contexts

Sammanfattning

Civilians in armed conflict are often portrayed as passive victims of violence, yet research increasingly shows that they actively make choices to protect themselves and influence their wartime surroundings. Among these strategies, civilians frequently engage in collective nonviolent action, even under conditions of extreme risk. Despite growing attention to civilian agency in civil war, whether nonviolent action can reduce violence against civilians has rarely been studied systematically. This thesis addresses that gap by asking: How does the occurrence of nonviolent action impact local levels of violence against civilians in armed conflict? Drawing on the theory of nonviolent action and recent findings on localised civilian resistance, this thesis argues that collective nonviolent action can activate civilian leverage over armed actors, who depend on civilian cooperation for resources, legitimacy, and territorial control, to reduce violence. To test this hypothesis, this thesis employs a large-N quantitative design, analysing panel data from 17 African countries that experienced civil war between 1990 and 2012. The primary findings show an aggregate null effect of nonviolence of violence against civilians; however, a hurdle model reveals that nonviolent action is associated with a significantly higher probability of violence occurring, though it has no detectable effect on the scale of violence once targeting has begun.