When the Costs of War Are Paid with the Lives of the Innocent : A quantitative study on the effects of UAVs on collateral civilian fatalities

Sammanfattning

Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) are a determining feature of contemporary warfare. Areas of deployment include reconnaissance and targeted killings by governments, in addition as reinforcement for insurgency tactics by non-state actors. Many have deemed them as safe alternatives to other forms of attacks since the increased precision is argued to decrease the risks for combatants and civilians. Yet, puzzling case studies have revealed that the opposite might be true for civilians, who might experience an increased risk of collateral damage. This thesis aims to contribute to the research field by investigating the effect of UAVs on collateral civilian fatalities in state-based conflicts on the event-level through a large-n quantitative study. Based on theories of risk redistribution and reckless endangerment warfare, the hypothesized relationship between the variables is an increased amount of collateral civilian fatalities from UAV attacks in comparison to other forms of attacks. This is tested with a negative binomial regression, which results support the hypothesis. The finding has implications for the research field, policymakers and leaders with influence over armed groups, in regards to how UAVs are utilized strategically and the international humanitarian law regulations on collateral damage.