Revolutionary Transitions - To What? A quantitative analysis at the intersection of revolution and democracy

Sammanfattning

Revolutions are historically recurring events, from the French Revolution to the Arab Spring. This thesis explores two plausible pre-revolution connections to post-revolution democracy levels, measuring democracy as a spectrum rather than a threshold. The first concerns the potential relation between pre-revolution democracy and post-revolution democracy. The second regards whether there is a pattern between pre-revolution regime type and post-revolution democracy. This exploration is guided by a theoretical framework that draws upon previous research on these very connections and is conducted through a mainly quantitative analysis of 20 countries that experienced revolutions between 1960-2000. The data is primarily collected from V-Dem’s electoral democracy index and the Autocratic Regimes dataset. Finally, the result illustrates a non-existing pattern between pre-revolution democracy and post-revolution democracy; it suggests that most revolutions occurring in more autocratic settings lead to at least a modicum of democratization as compared to previous regimes; and, it provides preliminary evidence that different pre-revolution regime types have different prospects for post-revolution democracy. Based on its findings, the thesis argues that research should continue to be conducted at the intersection of revolution and democracy by measuring democracy as a spectrum.