Same old story? : Comparative case study on the relationship between repression of protest, memory of conflict and onset of armed conflict

Sammanfattning

Repression of protests presents a puzzle, as it could either deter protesters from resorting to armed conflict or provoke them to escalate into it. This thesis departs from this puzzle and attempts to contribute towards our understanding of repression of protests as a possible cause of armed conflict. Drawing on a framework put forth by Bell and Murdie, it theorizes that memory of conflict moderates the relationship by reducing dissenters’ costs associated with the onset of armed conflict. A comparative case study informed by a most similar systems design tests this hypothesis on Burundi-2015/2016 and Burkina Faso-2014/2015. Whereas the case of Burundi-2015/2016 does offer some support to the explanatory value of the causal mechanism, the case of Burkina Faso-2014/2015 neither confirms nor dismisses the hypothesis. While the findings of this paper are limited in their contribution to our knowledge of the effect of the causal relationship, they provide interesting insights for future scholarship on the salience of memories of collective action in relation to outcomes of repression of protests.