Sea Level Rise and Landscape Changes: A GIS assessment of coastal flood risk in Örnsköldsvik

Sammanfattning

Climate change is increasing the risk of sea level rise globally, however, exposure varies, and certain places are more likely to be affected than others. The municipality of Örnsköldsvik experiences post-glacial rebound and is expected to have minimal exposure to the sea level rise. This study assesses the spatial vulnerabilities posed by an RCP8.5 flood scenario and a hypothetical 69-meter sea level rise to Örnsköldsvik’s land use and transportation infrastructure. The assessment was created from high-resolution digital elevation data using a static inundation approach in ArcGIS. The RCP8.5 flood resulted in minor exposure on the municipality’s land use and infrastructure, whereas the extreme scenario completely transformed the landscape, with 80% of the urban localities being submerged. Investigating worst-case scenarios can provide valuable insights into the potential impacts of sea level rise in Örnsköldsvik, contributing to discussions on climate adaptation and spatial planning.