Shifting Ice in Swedish Security Doctrine : A qualitative study on regional adaptations of Swedish military strategy in the Arctic following the Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine

Sammanfattning

How do small states act to ensure survival in a regional system of growing insecurity? Once described as a region of peaceful prosperity, the Arctic is now seen as a potential future battleground of great powers. In the shifting dynamics this entails, small states need to modify their strategic approaches to ensure security. This thesis aims to study the regional adaptations made in Swedish military strategy using qualitative content analysis. Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 is the pivotal event around which this thesis is based, due to its role in escalating European insecurity. The study applies regional security complex theory, defensive realism and offensive realism to gain understanding of regional adaptations of Swedish military strategy in the Arctic. Results conclude that Swedish regional adaptations are in line with the explanatory factors laid forth by regional security complex theory. Furthermore, the changes demonstrated in the strategies show increasing expressions of offensive realist approaches following the Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine.