Strategiska handelsvägar och kinesiskt inflytande inom Belt and Road Initiative

Sammanfattning

This thesis examines how Chinese presence in strategic trade corridors within the framework of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) can be transformed into political influence. The study compares two strategically significant maritime corridors: the route through Bab al-Mandab and the Suez Canal, and the corridor through the Strait of Hormuz. Using a comparative case study design combined with process tracing, the thesis analyses how Chinese investments in ports, logistics infrastructure, energy systems, and security arrangements create economic and geopolitical dependency relations. The analysis is grounded in theories of realism, structural power, and asymmetric interdependence, with particular emphasis on substitutability as a condition affecting the conversion of economic control into political influence. The findings indicate that Chinese influence develops through mechanisms such as structural dependency, financial dominance, security dependence, and control over critical infrastructure. However, the degree of political influence varies between the two corridors. In the Suez and Bab al-Mandab corridor, higher substitutability and the presence of multiple international actors limit China’s ability to exert direct political leverage. In contrast, the Strait of Hormuz demonstrates lower substitutability and stronger energy dependency, creating more favourable conditions for asymmetric interdependence and geopolitical influence. The study concludes that strategic trade corridors function not only as economic transport routes but also as instruments of structural geopolitical power in contemporary great-power competition.