Ukraina på rysk mark : en teorikonsumerande fallstudie av Kurskoffensiven 2024

Sammanfattning

This study examinates how Ukraine achieved tactical success during the Kursk campaign 2024. The Russian war on Ukraine has become positional with high casualties and static defensive lines, where gains are made meter by meter. Attrition warfare tends to favour the numerically superior party whereas manoeuvre warfare is beneficial for those in numerical disadvantage. Previous research shows how modern theology has changed the battlefield. Enhanced ISTAR-capabilities makes advances easier to detect which aggravates manoeuvre warfare. Additionally, studies from Ukraine also indicates that manoeuvre warfare is difficult to maintain, where it sooner or later decelerates and turns into attritional warfare. Despite these difficulties Ukraine manages to conduct successful manoeuvre warfare during the Kursk campaign 2024. By conducting a theory-consuming case study the aim is to explain how Ukraine gained tactical success during the incursion. This is achieved by analysing the course of events using the Ideal model as un analytic framework. Furthermore, the case is an example of how manoeuvre warfare can be achieved in an otherwise static environment. Results show how the initial deployment of forces, using cover and concealment from the terrain to remain undetected by the enemy, including combined arms integration and advancements along multiple axes generated a beneficial starting position for the next coming events. Intelligence gathering identified weak spots in the Russian defence which made breakthrough possible. By bypassing the enemy and avoiding combat Ukraine could advance quickly, exploiting the breakthroughs and creating surprise. In order to create hight tempo light armoured vehicles supported by drones would advance in the lead as heavier armoured vehicles followed up the advance.Ukraine managed to seize 1300 square kilometres of Russian territory in just a few weeks, providing substantial morale boosts to the Ukrainian people and its armed forces.