Water Security in Lower Akagera, Rwanda: Climate variabilities, Water Demand, and Impact in a Drought Prone Catchment

Sammanfattning

The drought-prone Eastern Province of Rwanda faces recurring water scarcity that constrains rural livelihoods. This thesis investigates seasonal water use, availability, and impacts in the Lower Akagera catchment by combining household interviews, groundwater monitoring, and remote sensing of dams. A Normalised Water Use Index (NWUI) was developed to capture seasonal groundwater abstraction and linked with rainfall anomalies, revealing an inverse relationship between precipitation and use. Results show that domestic water use from main sources increases by about 30% in the dry season and decreases by 25% in the rainy season, with rainwater harvesting providing an important supplementary supply. While groundwater recharge consistently exceeds demand, shallow boreholes and overused handpumps create economic water scarcity. Remote sensing revealed strong seasonal variability in surface water storage, with valley dams drying annually and irrigation dams stressed during droughts. Livelihood analysis indicated cascading negative consequences, especially during droughts, including reduced food security, income loss, and increased disease. The study concludes that water scarcity is driven less by hydrological limits than by infrastructure and access constraints, highlighting the need for improved storage, deeper boreholes, and strengthened monitoring to secure long-term water access.