Avskräckning i gråzon : En beskrivande studie av utvecklingen av Sveriges nationella säkerhetsstrategi från tiden före till efter Natointrädet.

Sammanfattning

Hybrid warfare and hybrid threats are problematic concepts, they are different from previous more traditional threats and warfare. These threats are characterized by the goal not of triggering war, but of disrupting and undermining political systems through combinations of violence, subversion, and manipulation of the truth, often with an unclear sender. Traditionally, previous research on deterrence has mainly concerned conventional threats. The more extensive threat picture is diffuse and moves below the threshold for military escalation. The purpose of the study is to analyze how Sweden's national security strategy and total defense development address hybrid threats before and after NATO accession, with the support of Sugio Takahashi´s theory of gray zone deterrence. By describing how the formulation has changed between our two most recent strategies, the study contributes to the discussion about the development of strategies and society's ability to counteract hybrid warfare. Above all, it highlights whether Sweden has adapted its national strategy against hybrid threats. By using Takahashi´s concept for gray zone deterrence the study shows a reinforcement of the strategy. All dimensions, punishment and denial, total defense and the possibility to escalate a conflict are all represented and can be explained through the theory. Above all, the membership in Nato has strengthen the credibility to counteract hybrid threats.