Avskräckning till sjöss : En jämförande fallstudie om hur Nato utövade avskräckning mot våldsamma ickestatliga aktörer i den maritima domänen

Sammanfattning

Threats in the maritime domain is increasing, by many different actors with different agendas. Since the beginning of the 2000´s, with a rapid increase this previous year, violent non state actors have posed a significant threat towards maritime security. One way which states choose to counter threats posed by violent non state actors, is by deterrence. Since Sweden entered NATO, the method has gained greater importance. This study examines how maritime NATO forces applied deterrence towards violent non state actors in Operation Active Endeavour and Operation Ocean Shield. By describing and comparing these previous operations, knowledge about how deterrence can be applied, towards an otherwise hardly deterred opponent, is gained. This can later be used in future NATO maritime operations. Findings indicate that mainly deterrence by denial is applied by NATO forces, with heavy emphasis on international cooperation and intelligence sharing. It is also observed that the level of applied violence eventually increases, with gradual adaptions regarding how to pose as a deterrent actor. The analysis also shows a difficulty to reach the source enabling violent non state actors, although affected coastal states shows willingness to cooperate.