Comparison and Evaluation of Generation Shift Key Strategies in Flow-Based Market Coupling

Sammanfattning

This thesis presents a comprehensive analysis and evaluation of generation shift key (GSK) approaches within flow-based market coupling (FBMC) simulation for power systems. As European electricity markets transition toward full liberalization through regional market coupling, FBMC has emerged as a critical methodology for optimizing cross-border electricity trading while accounting for transmission network constraints. However, the strategies and methods for calculating GSKs remain underdetermined and require further investigation. This study develops a mathematical framework that presents the transmis- sion model in the FBMC, encompassing nodal optimal power flow, FBMC optimization, and redispatch modeling. In this research, five GSK strategies are examined, including two novel approaches. The proposed strategies include one with non-negativity constraints and another that allows negative values for enhanced flexibility. These are compared against existing GSK strategies through comprehensive simulations. The methodology employs a system with three zones, examining four seasonal cases under both perfect and imperfect forecasting scenarios. Each case incorporates realistic load and renewable energy variations. Results demonstrate that the proposed GSK strategies offer significant adaptability advantages over traditional approaches. The total operational costs analysis reveals that the proposed GSK strategies can achieve cost reductions compared to existing approaches. The methods also show a better performance in system marginal cost optimization and reduced redispatch requirements under forecast uncertainty. This research contributes to sustainable power system development by enhancing FBMC efficiency, supporting renewable energy integration, and advancing economic welfare in electricity markets. The adaptive GSK framework provides transmission system operators with improved tools for managing cross-border electricity flows while maintaining system security and economic efficiency.