Decarbonising Road Freight Transport : Exploring Sustainable Transport Solutions for Heavy-Duty Vehicles in Brazil

Sammanfattning

This thesis explores how Brazil can align its truck transport sector with its NDC climate targets under the Paris Agreement. The study reviews policies, technologies, fuels—focusing on biodiesel, biomethane—electrification and models two scenarios: Business-as-Usual (BAU) and a Sustainable Scenario. The BAU projection shows that current policies are insufficient for meeting national climate goals, with diesel remaining dominant in freight transport. In contrast, the Sustainable Scenario assumes an increase in biodiesel blending to B20, the use of biodiesel B100 in truck fleets, and the integration of biomethane and electric trucks into the market. These changes—decreasing reliance on diesel fuel and reducing freight sector emissions by over 60% compared to 2005—position the truck sector within the 59–67% national emissions reduction target defined in Brazil’s NDC for 2035. Brazil’s established biofuel capacity offers a strong foundation for this transition. Still the study identifies critical uncertainties, including the slow historical pace of blend increases, infrastructure gaps for biomethane and electric trucks, sustainability concerns and the challenges posed by Brazil’s ageing truck fleet. It concludes that achieving meaningful decarbonisation will require stronger policies, a strong scrappage program, and coordinated investment by government and industry to scale low-carbon fuels and technologies over the next decade.