Resilience And Vulnerability At The Edge Of The Sahel : Explaining the Extremist Spillover Gap Between Ghana and Togo

Sammanfattning

This thesis examines whether the level of democracy influences vulnerability to extremist conflict spillover in West Africa through a comparative case study of Ghana and Togo. The study asks: to what extent does democratic governance affect the likelihood of extremist conflict spillover? The central hypothesis argues that lower levels of democracy increase the risk of spillovers by weakening grievance-management capacity, facilitating rebel recruitment, and reducing state resilience against transnational extremist threats. The study draws on theories of conflict diffusion and contagion, regional security complex theory, and democratic governance perspectives to explain how insecurity spreads across borders. Using a structured focused comparison research design, the study analyses Ghana and Togo as neighbouring states exposed to the expanding extremist insurgency in the Sahel but exhibiting different democratic characteristics. Empirically, the research relies on secondary data, including governance indicators, conflict databases, policy reports, academic literature, and regional security assessments reports. The findings show partial support for the hypothesis. Ghana’s relatively stronger democratic institutions appear to contribute to greater resilience against direct extremist spillover compared to Togo. However, both states remain vulnerable to recruitment networks, illicit cross-border activities, and regional extremist pressures, indicating that democracy alone is insufficient to fully prevent spillover dynamics.