Future Domestic Uranium Demand in Sweden : A scenario analysis of reactor technology and fuel cycle strategies

Sammanfattning

In light of the recent legalization of uranium mining in Sweden, escalating global geopolitical instability and Sweden’s ambitious goal of a 100% fossil free electricity system by 2040, securing a reliable nuclear fuel supply, has become a critical matter of national energy security. This study analyzes Sweden’s future domestic natural uranium demand across three strategic expansion paths, the continued operation of the existing fleet, expansion with large-scale reactors, and expansion with Small Modular Reactors (SMRs). Computational and simulating models were developed to assess the isotopic composition of spent nuclear fuel for a Ringhals 3 reactor and a Rolls Royce SMR representing a large-scale reactor and an SMR, respectively. The study further evaluates the fuel cycle by quantifying the reduction in natural uranium requirements through the reprocessing of spent fuel into Mixed Oxide (MOX) fuel. Results indicate that the existing fleet requires 706 tonnes of natural uranium annually, whereas future demand rises to 1 354 tonnes for the large-scale expansion and 1 680 tonnes for the SMR scenario. The findings reveal that SMR technology is less fuel efficient than large-scale reactors, mostly due to higher neutron leakage in smaller cores. While the implementation of MOX fuel across all scenarios provides a consistent natural uranium saving of approximately 10% per year, the study concludes that a large-scale expansion is more favorable from an energy security perspective due to its lower overall resource demand per produced energy unit.