I väntan på nästa översvämning: En studie om barriärer och drivkrafter för översvämningsanpassning till följd av stigande havsnivåer i Göteborg

Sammanfattning

Climate change and sea level rise pose a growing threat to coastal cities, which will suffer from more frequent and extensive flooding in the future. Although the coastal city of Gothenburg is currently not affected to any great extent, the city will have to adapt in line with rising sea levels to protect infrastructure and ensure essential societal functions. The purpose of this study is to examine climate adaptation in Gothenburg, focusing on flood risks resulting from sea level rise. To gain a deeper understanding of the city’s specific circumstances, a qualitative research method was applied, using semi-structured interviews with officials working with flood adaptation within the city. The interview data is analyzed through the theoretical lens of path dependence, where Gothenburg’s identified barriers and drivers within flood adaptation are contrasted with other coastal cities to highlight how historical path choices shape today’s local room for action. The results illustrate that Gothenburg’s adaptation opportunities are unique and embedded in the city’s specific preconditions and institutional context. Prominent drivers in Gothenburg’s flood adaptation include clear internal coordination within the municipality, significant collaborations, and a strong municipal initiative, which collectively have led to a proactive adaptation planning. However, a series of barriers hindering the actual implementation of adaptation measures were identified, including uncertain climate forecasts, a lack of national guidelines and support, and unclear financial responsibilities. The study therefore demonstrates a prominent implementation gap, where the local room for action is constrained by different path dependencies. To enable actual implementation despite an uncertain climate future, flexible strategies are highlighted as central to the continued flood adaptation work in Gothenburg.