Market Opportunities for Hydrogen in the Heavy-Duty Transportation Sector of Sweden and Finland

Sammanfattning

Decarbonizing the transport sector is essential for meeting national and EU climate targets, particularly in hard-to-abate areas like heavy-duty road transport. This study explores the role of green hydrogen in decarbonizing Heavy Duty Vehicles(HDVs) sector in Sweden and Finland. It identifies key market drivers, barriers, demand projections, and the importance of business model innovation in addressing adoption challenges. Based on 15 semi-structured stakeholder interviews and quantitative demand analysis, the research finds hydrogen unlikely to be a universal HDV solution but strategically valuable for long-haul, high-payload, and high-utilization operations, and its viability depends on access to low-cost green hydrogen (<€10/kg), scaled refuelling infrastructure, and collaborative business models. In Finland, education and training initiatives are critical to closing workforce and information gaps. EU Policy instruments are key to early market development. Still, hydrogen is expected to play a limited role in achieving 2030 climate targets, particularly in Sweden, where biofuels and battery-electric vehicles lead. Projections show hydrogen use in HDVs reaching 1,800 to 36,000 tons annually by 2030, depending on infrastructure growth and policy ambition. The study concludes that hydrogen’s market potential in Nordic HDV transport is real but conditional, dependent on cost, infrastructure, targeted deployment, and alignment within a broader zero-emission strategy.