Demokrati för pengar? : En studie av biståndets effekter på demokratisering

Sammanfattning

This study examines the relationship between Official Development Assistance (ODA) and democratization in aid-recipient countries during the period 2002–2020. Drawing on institutional theory, the study contributes to the ongoing debate on whether ODA promotes, stagnates, or undermines democratization in recipient countries. The analysis distinguishes between total development aid, democracy-oriented aid, and the share of democracy aid relative to total aid. Using data from the OECD Creditor Reporting System (CRS), DAC2A, V-Dem’s Electoral Democracy Index, and World Bank Open Data, I apply a fixed-effects regression model with three different time lags: short- , medium- , and long term. I find no statistically significant relationship between total aid and democratization across all three models. In contrast, democracy-oriented aid displays a weak but statistically significant positive association in the short and medium term, while the share of democracy aid is positively associated with democratization only in the short term. The results further indicate that these effects decline over longer time periods and lose statistical significance in the long term. However, the findings should be interpreted as correlations rather than causal relationships. The study suggests that the structure and direction of aid may be more important than the aggregated total volume for democratization. At the same time, the observed effects are small, indicating that development aid alone is unlikely to generate a larger democratic change. Therefore, the paper positions itself within the part of the research that emphasizes the importance of separating different types of aid when analyzing democratic effects.