Narrativ som prisdrivare: : En kvantitativ studie av sambandet mellan narrativ spridning och värderingsglapp i story stocks

Sammanfattning

This study examines whether narratives and digital engagement surrounding listed companies can predict the gap between a company's market price and its estimated fundamental value. Companies whose market prices systematically deviate from their fundamental value are sometimes referred to as story stocks, that is, companies where the narrative surrounding the business drives the price as much as the actual financial results. To measure the intensity with which a narrative spreads, we constructed a composite measure, a sentiment index, consisting of three components: internet users' search interest via Google, trading volume on the stock exchange, and historical price volatility. This index was tested against the calculated difference between market price and fundamental value for Tesla, Samhällsbyggnadsbolaget and Atlas Copco over the period 2020 to 2024, using statistical methods to examine whether narrative intensity precedes price deviations over time. The results show that the sentiment index statistically precedes the valuation gap for Tesla, while Samhällsbyggnadsbolaget displays a negative relationship in the expected direction without this being confirmed at the chosen level of statistical confidence. For Atlas Copco, no clear relationship is found. The study therefore indicates that narrative sentiment may be relevant for valuation gaps in companies with a strong narrative profile, though the results should be interpreted with caution as the sample is limited to three companies. The study's most important contribution is that narrative-driven pricing and rational pricing need not be viewed as opposites. The results suggest that these two explanatory frameworks can operate in parallel and complement each other depending on the type of company studied.