Sambandet mellan konsumentförtroende och aktieavkastning : En empirisk analys av OMXS30

Sammanfattning

This study examines the relationship between consumer confidence and stock returns in the Swedish stock market, and if either variable function as a leading indicator over time. The analysis is based on monthly data for the period 2010–2025. Consumer confidence is measured using the Swedish Consumer Confidence Indicator (CCI), while stock market performance is measured through log returns on the OMXS30 index. The empirical analysis is based on Pearson correlation, ordinary least squares regression with Newey–West corrected standarderrors, lagged regressions, Augmented Dickey–Fuller test, and Granger causality tests.The results show a statistically significant but weak positive relationship between changes inconsumer confidence and stock returns. The lagged regressions and Granger causality testsfurther indicate that stock returns have predictive content for future changes in consumerconfidence, whereas consumer confidence does not predict future stock returns. The study concludes that the relationship between consumer confidence and stock returns exists but is limited in strength, and that the stock market appears to function as a leading indicator forhousehold sentiment in Sweden.