Navigating the unpredictable: resilience strategies in the face of Nature’s changes : an empirical study of smallholder farmers in Zambia

Sammanfattning

This study investigates the impact of drought on food security and evaluates the effectiveness of climate coping strategies adopted by smallholder farmers in Zambia between 2012 and 2019. Utilizing panel data from the Rural Agricultural Livelihoods Survey (RALS) and employing a Two-Way Fixed Effects (TWFE) regression model, the research finds that droughts significantly reduce food security, with the 2015 season marking the most severe shock. However, households that adopted adaptive strategies—particularly crop diversification, soil conservation, and water harvesting—exhibited greater resilience. Among these, crop diversification demonstrated the highest return on investment and widest adoption, while irrigation, despite its potential, remained underutilized due to cost barriers. The study also highlights the critical role of enabling factors such as education, credit access, and extension services in amplifying adaptive capacity. The results underscore the importance of localized, multi-dimensional policy interventions to strengthen climate resilience in vulnerable agroecological zones. This research contributes to the empirical literature on climate adaptation by offering robust, context-specific insights that inform both policy and practice in sub-Saharan agriculture.