Styrräntans betydelse för börsvärdet : En kvantitativ analys av svenska börsnoterade kommersiella fastighetsbolag och bostadsfastighetsbolag under perioden 2015–2024

Sammanfattning

This study examines the relationship between the Swedish Riksbank’s policy rate and the market value of Swedish listed real estate companies during the period 2015–2024. The analysis includes 25 companies listed on Nasdaq Stockholm and covers both commercial and residential real estate companies. The purpose is to analyze whether changes in the policy rate are associated with changes in market value and whether this relationship differs between the two segments. The study applies a quantitative research strategy with a deductive approach and is based on panel data collected from the Riksbank, Statistics Sweden (SCB), Retriever Business, Avanza and Nasdaq Stockholm. Multiple regression analysis is used to examine the relationship between the policy rate and market value while controlling for leverage, cash flow, firm size, return on equity (ROE) and the market risk premium. The theoretical framework is based on CAPM, the DCF model and Trade-off Theory. The findings indicate a statistically significant negative relationship between the policy rate and the market value of Swedish listed real estate companies. The results also suggest that the relationship is somewhat stronger for residential real estate companies than for commercial real estate companies. In addition, leverage, firm size, cash flow, ROE and the market risk premium are found to be significantly associated with market value. The study contributes to the understanding of how changes in monetary policy are related to the valuation of a highly leveraged and economically important sector. However, the results should be interpreted with caution, as the analysis identifies statistical relationships rather than definitive causal effects. Keywords: Policy rate, Market value, Commercial real estate companies, Residential real estate companies, Firm size, Leverage, Cash flow, Market risk premium, ROE