Bortom Papes förnekelseteori : Tvångsmaktens komplexitet i Kosovo och Libyen

Sammanfattning

The use of air power in coercion is yet again most relevant as seen in the conflict between Iran,the US and Israel. Several theorists have historically tried to explain how coercion is done mosteffectively, one of which is Robert Pape, who favors a denial-type of coercion. By using processtracing and a comparative method, this study aims to test his theory and causal model on the casesof the Kosovo war (1999) and the intervention in Libya (2011). Furthermore this study also aimsto examine to what extent Pape's proposed coercion methods, in comparison to other methods,affects the opponents cost-benefit analysis, and thereby the political outcome. The study hasshown that Pape's denial-theory can’t explain the political outcome of each conflict with enoughcertainty due to the theory's linear causal model. Instead, coercion should be viewed as a dynamicand interactive process where the aggressor has to adjust its choosing of coercion-methodsdepending on the opponents actions, and where the effect from several coercion-methodsaccumulates to affect the opponents cost-benefit analysis and thus the political outcome.