Från riskkommunikation till beredskap : En kvalitativ innehållsanalys av Om krisen eller kriget kommer

Sammanfattning

State risk communication is central to civil preparedness, as households are increasingly expected to understand threats, take responsibility, and prepare for crises and war. This study examines how the Swedish state formulates risk, crisis, war, and preparedness in the brochures If Crisis or War Comes from 2018 and 2024. The purpose is to analyse how the brochures formulate severity, vulnerability, response efficacy, self-efficacy, and response costs, and to identify how these formulations have changed over time. The study is conducted as a directed qualitative content analysis based on Protection Motivation Theory. The findings show that both brochures combine descriptions of threats with recommendations for preparedness and present preparedness as a shared responsibility between the state, society, and the individual. However, the 2024 brochure differs by formulating a more immediate and security-oriented threat picture. War, cyberattacks, disinformation, societal disruptions, and civil preparedness are more clearly connected to the role of individuals and households. Compared with the 2018 brochure, the 2024 version also contains more concrete instructions, more situation-specific advice, and more explicit formulations of what the recipient is expected to prepare for and do. The study concludes that the main change between 2018 and 2024 is not only that threats are formulated more clearly, but that the relationship between threat and preparedness is more closely integrated. In the 2024 brochure, preparedness is framed as more directly connected to total defence, societal resilience, and the individual’s practical role in crisis and war.