Kartläggning av framtida effektbehov och robusthet i ett lokalt distributionsnät

Sammanfattning

Electrification of industry and transport places increasing demands on the capacity and robustness of local high voltage distribution networks. The aim of this master thesis, conducted in collaboration with Umeå Energi Elnät, was to map the future power demand in an industrial and commercial area in Umeå as well as to analyze how electrification will affect the load and robustness of the local distribution network up to the year 2035. The study is based on interview‑based prognosis of future power demand from companies operating within the area, combined with power system simulations using the network analysis tool dpPower. Network calculations were performed for the existing network configuration in 2025 as well as for a future scenario with projected loads in 2035. The analysis focused on normal operation during peak load conditions and simulated cable outages closest to supplying feeders, in accordance with the N‑1 criteria. The results showed that the network configuration in 2025 is well dimensioned and robust, capable of handling both peak load operation and cable outages. However, simulations for the 2035 scenario indicated significant capacity constraints, mainly driven by the expansion of charging infrastructure for electric vehicles. Several feeders exceed protection relay and control center alarm limits, certain cable sections became overloaded and multiple distribution transformers were subjected to overload. Network reinforcements in the form of two additional feeders and redistribution of existing loads where shown to restore network robustness. The study thus provides a robust and practically relevant basis for future distribution network planning.