The Invisible Wire : Spillovers Between AI-Related Equities, Copper Producers Equities and Copper Futures

Sammanfattning

This study examines the return and volatility transmission between AI-related equities, copper producers, and copper futures over the period 2022–2026 using a combined GARCH–VAR connectedness framework and DCC-GARCH analysis. The results show that AI equities primarily function as dominant transmitters of volatility, while copper producers play a more important role in return transmission. The dynamic analysis further reveals a pronounced structural shift during H1 2025, where both AI equities and copper producers became significantly stronger shock transmitters across the system. This shift coincided with major AI infrastructure investment announcements, suggesting that rising expectations regarding AI-driven copper demand reshaped the transmission structure between commodity and equity markets. The findings also indicate that copper futures only partially mediate the relationship between AI equities and copper producers, while producer equities themselves serve as the main transmission channel. Overall, the study highlights that cross-asset connectedness within AI-related commodity systems is highly dynamic and regime-dependent, carrying important implications for portfolio diversification, volatility monitoring, and risk management.