Utvecklingen av rovdjursangrepp på får i Sverige

Sammanfattning

Large carnivores are an important part of Swedish ecosystems, but conflicts with livestock production remain a major management challenge. This study investigates patterns of carnivore attacks on sheep in Sweden during 2003–2025, focusing on temporal trends, geographical distribution, and differences between carnivore management regions. Data from Rovbase and Rovdjursforum were statistically analyzed to examine national trends in attacks caused by eagles, wolves, lynx, and bears, while geographical analyses focused on wolves and lynx. The results showed that the total number of carnivore attacks on sheep has a slight negative trend during the study period. A total of 3,283 attacks were recorded, where lynx accounted for the largest proportion, followed by wolves, bears, and eagles. However, clear regional changes were identified. Attacks by wolves and lynx increased in counties within the Southern carnivore management region, including Östergötland and Kronoberg, while decreasing trends were observed in the central region, such as Dalarna and Värmland. Wolves caused the greatest severity per attack, measured as the number of affected sheep, whereas lynx generally caused fewer affected individuals per event. Significant regional differences were also observed for lynx, with more sheep affected per attack in northern Sweden compared to southern Sweden. These patterns may be influenced by multiple factors, including carnivore distribution, local population changes, preventive measures such as predator-resistant fencing, and increased experience among livestock owners. The study demonstrates that carnivore attacks on sheep in Sweden vary regionally and may be shaped by both ecological and management-related factors.