Rullande prognoser som styrmedel : En fallstudie om rullande prognoser i Balco-koncernen

Sammanfattning

Background: Traditional budgeting has long been a central management toll within organizations but has faced increasing criticism for being rigid and difficult to manage in a changing economic environment. This has led to the emergence of rolling forecasts as an alternative management tool. Prior research shows disagreement regarding how rolling forecasts are best designed in practice, including whether they should replace or complement the budget, whether goals and forecasts should be separated or integrated, and whether a proactive or reactive approach is most appropriate. Purpose: The study aims to increase understanding of how rolling forecasts are used within organizations and how they affect the organizations' financial management. Method: A qualitative research approach was applied with an abductive approach. The study was conducted as a single case study of the Balco Group where semi-structured interviews were conducted with seven respondents with different roles and responsibilities within the group. The empirical material was analyzed through thematic analysis based on the theoretical framework. Conclusion: The study shows that rolling forecasts within the Balco Group function as a complement to the traditional budget rather than a replacement. Balco applies neither a strict separation nor a full integration of goals and forecasts, but a hybrid approach where the boundary between them is diffuse. Rolling forecasts are used both proactively and reactively in parallel. The practical contribution of the study is to provide guidance on how budgets and rolling forecasts can be combined in project-based organizations. The theoretical contribution is to nuance prior research by demonstrating that the three central choices in theory constitute continuous points of balance rather than distinct alternatives inpractice.